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- paradoxe_anniversaires
- and choose another. Do this for only 9 draws, and more likely than not, you've pulled the same card twic... 0%. Try it! * Next time you're in an event with more than 118 people, think to yourself that there's a... (assuming those are uniformly distributed). With more than 250 people, its >95%. Ditto for ATM pin code... d twice? It's around 1,900 hands that it becomes more likely than not to have held the same hand twice.